Judged odds for what explains a ¥36.5bn one-off item in The Pokémon Company group’s accounts for the year to February 2026

What this is

Judged odds for what explains a ¥36.5bn one-off item in The Pokémon Company group’s accounts for the year to February 2026: about 45% that it is all Niantic.

How it’s built

The research had said in advance that if the US arm was not named in Niantic’s later rounds, the Niantic odds should fall from about 0.6 toward 0.4.
It was not named, but the test was weaker than planned, so the odds fell to 0.45.
The rest: another investment in the group 30%, a currency effect 13%, something else 12%.

What we assumed

Absence from press lists of later investors is only weak evidence.Press lists name lead and new investors; existing holders adding money would go unnamed, and the primary releases could not be opened.
The probabilities are judgements.They update earlier judged odds; no document settles the question.

Sanity check

The firmer conclusion is that, under every route but ‘something else’, a one-off gain of ¥20–36.5bn after tax sat below the Tokyo company: about 88% likely.

Where it comes from

Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:

Show the working

judgement on..9,,

The IP

The companies

The business lines

Around it