What this is
How strongly the evidence supports the stake Nintendo sold in the year to March 2026 being Niantic: about 90% likely, as a judgement.
How it’s built
- Weigh four independent strands: the site author’s statement; Nikkei naming Nintendo among Niantic holders paid out; a full exit of a pre-2019 stake at 29 times cost; and the gain booked in the quarter the Niantic sale closed.
What we assumed
- The strands are independent and none points elsewhere.Searches of six Nintendo annual reports for Niantic or Scopely found nothing either way.
- The 90% figure is a judgement.No filing names the company sold; Nikkei is press and was read once.
Sanity check
A Nintendo document naming the company would settle it. Nothing found contradicts it.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes.
Show the working
- Tier: B (unchanged: no filing names the issuer)
- P identity: ≈0.9 (judgement)