A judgement of how likely it is that the Tokyo company’s ¥23.8bn one-off gain in the year to February 2026 came mainly from selling its Niantic stake

What this is

A judgement of how likely it is that the Tokyo company’s ¥23.8bn one-off gain in the year to February 2026 came mainly from selling its Niantic stake: about 68% (65–70%).

How it’s built

1. List the possible explanations and give each a weight: Tokyo company selling Niantic shares (68% in total, split three ways), the overseas arm holding all of it (7%), an earlier exit (4%), another asset (21%).
2. Raise the weight from an earlier 55–60% for three documented reasons, and cap it below 75% for lack of a direct link.

What we assumed

• The Tokyo company was the 2015 investor.The Pokémon Company’s own Japanese release of October 2015 names the Tokyo company as investing in Niantic.
• The gain’s size relative to Nintendo’s Niantic gain (0.73) fits the Pokémon share being split with the overseas arm.The 2015 round had four investors and three equal tickets, so one ticket was likely shared; this is inference.
• Nintendo’s side of the exit is solid.Nintendo fully exited a pre-2019 unlisted stake that year, and Nikkei names Nintendo among Niantic holders paid out.
• The weights themselves are judgements.No document ties the gain to Niantic or shows the Tokyo company still held shares in 2025.

Sanity check

Anything naming the source of the ¥23.8bn, or showing who held the Pokémon shares in 2025, would settle it.

Where it comes from

Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:

• ReportedInvesting entity TPC release, Niantic investment 15 October 2015
• ReportedNiantic investment release 15 October 2015: entity wording, 15 October 2015
• EstimateHow Niantic’s $20m October 2015 round was probably split
• EstimateWhich explanation best fits The Pokémon Company’s gain being 0.73 of Nintendo’s
• FiledA count check showing Nintendo sold its whole stake in one unlisted company in the year to March 2026, not just part of it
• ReportedEvidence that Nintendo bought the stake it sold in the year to March 2026 before April 2019

Where it’s used

• Deep dive · Pokémon GO & mobileThe Niantic exit