How it’s built
- TV Tokyo publishes its total anime revenue and ranks its titles by sales. If Pokémon ranks 4th, three titles earn at least as much, so four times Pokémon’s income cannot exceed the total.
- Latest year: ¥27.2bn ÷ 4 = ¥6.8bn. Earlier ceilings range from ¥2.9bn to ¥5.8bn.
What we assumed
- “Outside the top five” in the year to March 2019 is treated as sixth.That gives the loosest ceiling consistent with the ranking, so it cannot understate the bound.
- The year to March 2016 figure comes from a weaker source whose basis is unknown.It may not be on the same footing as the later years; treat that year as indicative only.
Sanity check
These are upper limits, not estimates. The ceiling rose 51% from 2022 to 2026 only because the total anime pool grew; Pokémon’s rank stayed at 4th (5th in one year).
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
Show the working
- 4P<=18,038 => 4,510
- 5P<=22,196 => 4,439
- 4P<=20,971 => 5,243
- 4P<=23,103 => 5,776
- 4P<=27,219 => 6,805