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A corrected estimate of Creatures’ headcount in March 2020, about 127–155, and what it implies

Creatures Mar 2020–Apr 2026

EstimateAn estimate from a company chart with undated points; the range is fair, the exact base is not.

What this is

A corrected estimate of Creatures’ headcount in March 2020, about 127–155, and what it implies: staff roughly doubled to 296 by April 2026.

How it’s built

  1. Take the staff chart on Creatures’ recruiting site, which shows six yearly points ending at 296.
  2. Read literally, the March 2020 base is 155; if each point is dated a year later (as two cross-checks suggest), extrapolating back gives about 127.
  3. Growth to 296 is then 1.9–2.3 times, and Creatures’ 2020 profit per head ¥25–30.5m.

What we assumed

  • Each chart point, labelled only by year, is dated to the following April.Two points match April headcounts from job sites under that reading; under the literal reading both would be a year out.
  • The March 2020 figure is extrapolated back one year by about 28, the typical yearly increase.Yearly increases on the chart run 22–33, so this is in line with the trend.
  • The chart excludes part-time staff.Its footnote says so.

Sanity check

Both readings put the 2020 base below an earlier straight-line estimate of 168, so earlier fee-based profit forecasts were 9–33% too low. The chart shows no hiring jump when Pocket launched.

The value

  • Increments Apr2021–Apr2026: 33, 29, 29, 28, 22

Some detail is too fine to show here; it is kept in the trainer’s notes.

Where it comes from

Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:

Show the working
  1. 296/155=1.91
  2. 155−28.2=126.8
  3. 296/126.8=2.33
  4. 3,871.9/155=25.0
  5. 3,871.9/126.8=30.5
  6. 1.91/1.758=1.09
  7. 2.33/1.758=1.33

Where it’s used