What this is
Revenue the Excell purchase could add in the year to February 2027, by closing date: nothing if not closed; ¥0.5–6.1bn if closed in December 2026.
How it’s built
- A full year of Excell inside the group is estimated to add ¥2.1–24.4bn (central ¥7.0bn).
- That is scaled by the months after closing: 11/12 for April 2026, 3/12 for December, 1/12 for February 2027.
- Against Pocket’s expected fall of ¥59–84bn, even a full year offsets at most 29–41%.
What we assumed
- A full year adds ¥2.1–24.4bn.Built on assumed shares: 40–55% of non-Japan cards sold in the US, 30–60% of those through Excell, and Excell’s margin per card.
- The closing date is unknown.No closing notice was found by late October 2026; regulatory approval was required.
- Only Pokémon sales are counted.Excell’s other brands, such as Magic and Lorcana, would add revenue too; their size is unknown.
Sanity check
Small next to Pocket’s decline, and it lands in the subsidiaries, not the Tokyo parent.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes.
Show the working
- Not closed by 28 Feb 2027: 0
- Against Japan 200yen step: ¥11.2bn
- Effect = full-year band x months post-closing / 12: 24.4 x 11/12 = 22.37
- x 3/12 = 6.10
- x 1/12 = 2.03
- 7.0 x 3/12 = 1.75
- 3.74 x 3/12 = 0.94
- Ratios 24.4/58.9 = 0.41
- 24.4/84.1 = 0.29
- 1.75/58.9 = 0.03
- 6.1/11.2 = 0.54