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Record

S evidence against q13 budget test, year to February 2017, year to February 2017 (2016-17)

Year to February 2017 (2016-17)

EstimateOur model or estimate. Treat it as an order of magnitude.

The values

  • Implied 2016-17 hobby s (g d 0.10-0.25): 0.38 to 0.5
  • Q13 budget assumption: 0.5 to 0.55
  • Q13 test threshold (closes the ¥ 4-9bn gap): 0.63 to 0.73
  • Max pretax pickup if s were at the 0.56 ceiling: ¥0.3–3bn
  • Remaining gap: ¥1–8.7bn
  • If s was 0.38-0.50 instead of 0.50-0.55, pretax change: ¥-8.5–0bn

Some detail is too fine to show here; it is kept in the trainer’s notes.

Where it comes from

Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes.

Show the working
  1. 72/143.64 = 0.50
  2. 80/143.64 = 0.56
  3. 90/129.95 = 0.69
  4. Hobby s = 0.50 x 0.75 = 0.375 to 0.56 x 0.90 = 0.504
  5. Pickup at the ceiling: (0.56 - 0.55) = 0.01 -> 1.4..2.5 x 0.2 = 0.28-0.5
  6. (0.56 - 0.50) = 0.06 -> 1.4..2.5 x 1.2 =

Where it’s used

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