What this is
How many Pokémon cards were made in the year to March 2021: at most about 3.8 billion, because the company changed what it was counting that year.
How it’s built
- The March 2020 total (30.4bn) counted cards shipped; the March 2021 total (34.1bn) counted cards produced.
- Cards made but not yet shipped by March 2020 sit in the gap, so the year's production is 3.7bn minus that stock, plus up to 0.1bn for rounding.
What we assumed
- Cards produced are always at least cards shipped.You cannot ship a card that has not been made, so the gap can only lower the year's production figure.
Sanity check
If the company merely renamed an unchanged series, 3.7bn stands. Either way, the jump to the next year (9.1bn) is at least 2.4 times.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes.
Show the working
- Mixed difference bn: 3.7
- Band: 3.6 to 3.8
- Production upper bound bn, year to March 2021: 3.8
- To year to March 2022 multiple min, year to March 2021: 2.37
- Mar 2020 30.4 is 出荷 (shipped)
- Mar 2021 34.1 is 製造 (produced)
- If production >= shipments, cumulative produced at Mar 2020 = 30.4 + I20, so FY3/21 production = 34.1 - 30.4