Predicted Creatures profits for the years to March 2021–2026 under different assumptions about how much of its income tracks card sales — forecasts to test, not observed figures

How it’s built

Start from Creatures’ last visible profit, ¥3.87bn for the year to March 2020.
If income is a development fee, grow it with headcount (about 1.76 times by 2026): about ¥6.8bn in the year to March 2026.
If half tracks card volume, grow that half with a card index instead: about ¥9.5bn on print volume, ¥13.9bn on print times price.
Add any dividend from The Pokémon Company in the year it was paid.

What we assumed

Profit margin stays constant, so fee-based profit grows with headcount.A simplifying assumption; the research has no later Creatures accounts to test it.
Headcount grew in a straight line between known counts.Only a few dated counts exist; the real path may differ.
The card index (print volume, or print times yen per card) captures card-linked income.Both indexes are estimates; early print and price data are themselves modelled.
Creatures receives 34% of The Pokémon Company’s 2024 dividend, about ¥3.05bn.The founders’ shareholdings are not filed; 34% each is assumed.
Creatures paid no dividends of its own, and the 2020 Umbrella merger had no effect.Neither can be checked; the merger’s effect on retained profits is unknown.

Sanity check

Any later Creatures results notice would settle it: profit of about ¥7bn or less in the year to March 2026 reads as fees; ¥9.5bn or more means at least half its income tracks card volume.

Where it comes from

Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:

Show the working

e.g
FY3/26 fee 3,872×296/168.4 = 6,804
k=0.5 print 3,872×(0.5×1.758 + 0.5×3.125) = 9,452
k=0.5 print×price 3,872×(0.879 + 2.709) = 13,890
FY3/24 adds 3,052
RE 2026 = 29,275 + Σ NI(FY3/21–26): fee 65,769
k=0.5 print 82,079
TPC-tracking 3,872 × 120,056/15,300 = 30,382

Where it’s used

Related figures

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The IP

The companies

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