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Back loaded profit history growth equivalent, to year to March 2020 (Creatures), year to March 2015 (Game Freak)

To year to March 2020 (Creatures), year to March 2015 (Game Freak)

EstimateOur model or estimate. Treat it as an order of magnitude.

What this is

Assumptions: no losses, no dividends paid by the founders to their own shareholders, and smooth geometric growth into the dated year. Payouts or loss years would mean a higher earnings history and so lower implied growth.

The values

  • Creatures constant growth equivalent % per period: 14.7
  • Creatures ex TPC dividends 34pct: 15.4%
  • Creatures linear ramp cumulative against retained earnings: 48,398 to 29,275
  • Game Freak constant growth equivalent % per period: 19.4
  • Game Freak linear ramp cumulative against retained earnings: 21,287 to 9,974

Some detail is too fine to show here; it is kept in the trainer’s notes.

Where it comes from

Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes.

Show the working
  1. solve sum_{i=0}^{24} 3,871.855/(1+g)^i = 29,274.709 → g = 14.67%
  2. on 29,274.709−1,043 → 15.38%
  3. linear ramp 25 × 3,871.855/2 = 48,398 > 29,275
  4. Game Freak: sum_{i=0}^{25} 1,637.495/(1+g)^i = 9,973.522 → g = 19.41%
  5. ramp 26 × 1,637.495/2 = 21,287 > 9,974