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Persistence test thresholds both K FA cases, 31 Mar 2026

31 Mar 2026

EstimateOur model or estimate. Treat it as an order of magnitude.

What this is

E_TPC = 4,693 − K_FA − K_oth + s·N_FA. If K_FA = 0.10·N_FA, s = 0.22, thresholds 11,397–29,125.

The values

  • Slope if K FA eq 0.10N: 0.22
  • Threshold N FA ¥ m slope 0.22: 11,397 to 29,125
  • Slope if K FA historic 1.5 2.0bn: 0.32
  • Threshold N FA ¥ m slope 0.32: 12,522 to 26,272
  • Threshold $ m slope 0.32: 84 to 176
  • Base excess Mar 2026: 4,693

Where it comes from

Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:

Show the working
  1. E_TPC = 4,693 − K_FA − K_oth + s·N_FA
  2. If K_FA = 0.10·N_FA, s = 0.22, thresholds 11,397–29,125
  3. If K_FA is the historic ≈¥1.5–2.0bn, s = 0.32: (6,900 − 4,693 + 1,500 + 300)/0.32 = 12,522
  4. …

Where it’s used

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