What this is
An estimate of Disney Lorcana card revenue for Ravensburger, its publisher: about €89–163m in 2025 ($0.10–0.19bn), down 28–42% from 2024.
How it’s built
- Ravensburger’s total revenue: €669m (2023), €790m (2024), €744m (2025). Lorcana launched in 2023.
- Assume the rest of the business changed by at most ±3% a year; whatever revenue is left over is attributed to Lorcana.
What we assumed
- Ravensburger’s other business moved within ±3% a year.The research gives no direct evidence; small changes there move the Lorcana estimate a lot.
- 2022 revenue, before Lorcana, is backed out from 2023’s reported growth.Uses the company’s reported growth rate; a stable base is needed to isolate Lorcana.
- Euros converted at $1.13–1.17.Spans 2025 exchange-rate levels.
Sanity check
Card sales kept growing: over 1bn cards by start of 2025 and over 2.8bn by August 2026, so a revenue fall would mean lower prices or stock effects.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes.
Show the working
- Lorcana 2023 EURm: 51.6 to 87.5
- Lorcana 2024 EURm: 154 to 226
- Lorcana 2025 EURm: 89 to 163
- Lorcana change 2025: -0.42 to -0.28
- Lorcana 2025: $0.1–0.19bn
- CY2022 = 669/1.116 = 599.5 (no Lorcana)
- L23 = 669 - 599.5 x (1 +/- 0.03) = 51.6-87.5
- Core23 = 669 - L23 = 581.5-617.4
- core24 = core23 x (1 +/- 0.03) = 564.0-636.0
- L24 = 790 - core24 = 154.0-226.0
- L25 = 744 - 1.03 x core24 = 89.0-163.0 …
- 154.0 -> 89.0, -42%)