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How much of the Tokyo parent’s ¥11.8bn rise in liabilities in the year to February 2017 was tax

TPC parent year to February 2016-year to February 2019

EstimateA model on filed totals and standard tax rules; plausible, not confirmed.

What this is

How much of the Tokyo parent’s ¥11.8bn rise in liabilities in the year to February 2017 was tax: about ¥6.5–7.0bn, or 55–59%.

How it’s built

  1. Estimate each year’s tax from net profit at a 29–31% rate, then subtract the interim payment to get the year-end tax still owed.
  2. What is left, about ¥4.8–5.4bn, is non-tax liabilities. That caps any deferred GO income at about ¥4.7–5.2bn, 4–5% of GO’s gross.

What we assumed

  • The interim tax payment was half the prior year’s tax.That is Japan’s standard interim-filing basis; the company’s actual payments are not published.
  • No tax was owed at the end of the prior year.The prior interim payment exceeded that year’s tax; this explains the small gap with another estimate.
  • A tax rate of 29.3–31.0%.A standard Japanese corporate rate range for the period.

Sanity check

Non-tax liabilities move in step with pretax profit across 2017–2019, like ordinary working capital, with no extra 2017 bulge.

Where it comes from

Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes.

Show the working
  • Deferred income ceiling year to February 2017: 4,700 to 5,200
  • Ceiling % of GO gross: 4 to 5.1
  1. tax = NI·t/(1-t)
  2. Japanese 中間申告 on the prior-year basis = ½ prior-year tax (ASSUMED)
  3. year-end payable = tax - interim (FY2/16 payable ≈0 because the FY2/15 interim exceeded FY2/16 tax, ASSUMED)
  4. FY2/17 payable 6

Where it’s used

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