How the Tokyo parent’s profit moved with Pokémon GO spending, years to February 2017–2019

What this is

How the Tokyo parent’s profit moved with Pokémon GO spending, years to February 2017–2019: about ¥15–18bn of net profit per $1bn of GO gross each year.

How it’s built

1. Divide each year’s parent net profit by estimated GO gross for that year (vendor figures, converted at ¥108–112).
2. Predict the 2018 fall in pretax profit from GO alone: ¥7.5–10.6bn, against an actual fall of about ¥10.0–10.3bn.

What we assumed

• GO gross spending per year from app-data vendors.No official figure exists; vendor estimates differ, and the ratio moves with whichever is used.
• Exchange rates of ¥108–112 per dollar.Assumed annual rates for each year.

Sanity check

The main-series games also moved the same way (Sun/Moon, then smaller releases), so moving together alone does not prove GO caused it.

Where it comes from

Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:

• EstimateGO gross by TPC fiscal window and quarter, TPC year to February 2017-year to February 2019 (Mar-Feb)
• EstimateMain series launch year control and parent GO pretax, year to February 2013-year to February 2017 (parent)

Where it’s used

• Deep dive · The Pokémon CompanyThe Pokémon GO year
• ProfileThe Pokémon Company