What this is
The Tokyo parent’s profit jump in the Pokémon GO year to February 2017: net profit ¥619m to ¥15.9bn (25.7 times), with a pretax margin of about 45–53%.
How it’s built
- Net profit from the official gazette notices for both years.
- Pretax profit grossed up at a 29–31% tax rate: about ¥22.5–23.1bn.
- Revenue bounded at ¥43.7–49.9bn from total assets, using the asset turnover seen in the two years where revenue is filed.
What we assumed
- A tax rate of 29.3–31.0%.A standard Japanese corporate rate range for the period; only net profit is filed.
- Revenue relative to assets was between 1.00 and 1.14, as in the two filed years.Revenue for that year is not published; this is the only basis available, and it rules out a much higher figure.
Sanity check
The retained-earnings roll-forward balances to zero for that year, confirming no dividend was paid out of it.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
Show the working
- Net profit: 619 to 15,921
- Multiple: 25.7
- Pretax estimate: 22,519 to 23,074
- Pretax year to February 2016 estimate: 876 to 897
- Revenue bound: 43,726 to 49,937
- Pretax margin: 45.1 to 52.8%
- 15,921/619 = 25.72x
- Pretax = NI/(1-t), t = 0.293-0.310 (C-Q13-1): 15,921/0.707 = 22,519
- /0.690 = 23,074
- FY2/16 619 -> 876-897
- Margins on the turnover-bound revenue 43,726-49,937 : pretax 22,519/4