What this is
How big Pokémon resale is against new-card sales: on our estimates, resale is between about a fifth of what is spent on new cards at shelf price and nearly all of it (0.19 to 0.93 times).
How it’s built
- Resale: card sales on eBay tracked by Card Ladder, annualised ($3.5–5.4bn for all cards), times an assumed Pokémon share of 30–60%, giving $1.0–3.2bn.
- New cards: $3.5–5.5bn a year worldwide at shelf price.
- The low end divides the smallest resale figure by the largest new-card figure; the high end does the reverse.
What we assumed
- Pokémon is 30–60% of card sales on eBay.eBay and Card Ladder do not split out Pokémon; sports cards are a large part of eBay's card sales, so the share is a wide guess.
- eBay stands in for the whole Western resale market.TCGplayer, auction houses and shops' own resale are left out, so this may understate resale.
Sanity check
The ratio is so wide because both sides are estimates. It rules out resale being many times larger than new-card sales, and it rules out resale being negligible.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes.
Show the working
- Pokémon on eBay $ billion if Pokémon 30-60% of card sales (ASSUMED, C): 1 to 3.2
- Ratio to world primary at retail (¥520-830bn = $3.5-5.5bn): 0.19 to 0.93
- Mercari E&H growth against marketplace GMV growth (pp): 16
- 10/74 = 0.135
- 0.29 x 12 = 3.48
- 0.45 x 12 = 5.40
- x0.30 = 1.04, x0.60 = 3.24
- ÷ primary retail $ 5.52 / 3.47bn
- Sanyodo 1838/960 − 1 = 91.5%, 2035/1838 − 1 = 10.7%
- 16.492/5.275 = 3.126
- ^(1/4.6) and ^(1/3.87) because the
Related figures
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