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Pocket against paper substitution test, Oct 2024-Jun 2026

Oct 2024-Jun 2026

EstimateOur model or estimate. Treat it as an order of magnitude.

What this is

Test: if Pocket substituted for paper, paper demand would weaken during Pocket's peak (Nov 2024-Apr 2025) and recover as its spend fell 51% and then 32%.

The values

  • Print year to March 2024→25→26 bn and %: 11.9, 10.2, 10, -14.3, -2
  • Months of year to March 2025 before Pocket launch: 7

Some detail is too fine to show here; it is kept in the trainer’s notes.

Where it comes from

Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:

Show the working
  1. Test: if Pocket substituted for paper, paper demand would weaken during Pocket's peak (Nov 2024-Apr 2025) and recover as its spend fell 51% and then 32%
  2. Print fell -14.3% in FY3/25, but 7 of those 12 months were pre-launch, and i