What this is
Whether Nintendo’s affiliate profit line tracked the Tokyo parent’s profit in the years to March 2008–2016: it did not (within ±50% in 3 of 9 years; correlation 0.29).
How it’s built
- Each year, Nintendo’s line divided by its 32% stake is compared with the parent’s profit for the matching year.
- Only three years land within ±50%. Correlation across nine years is 0.29, and only that high because both were negative in 2012.
What we assumed
- A 32% stake applies throughout, and Nintendo’s March years match the parent’s February years.Nintendo held 31–32% over the period; the years overlap by eleven months.
- Parent profit is the right comparison.Group profit is not disclosed for these years; the research does not treat the excess as evidence of International-arm profit.
Sanity check
The conclusion is negative and robust: Nintendo’s line is not a usable stand-in for Pokémon profit before the year to March 2017.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
Show the working
- Years tested: 9
- Years within pm50pct of parent: 3
- Pearson r line against parent net profit: 0.289
- Implied div032, year to March 2012: -1,862
- Ratio to parent, year to March 2012: 4.72
- As with FY3/12 added (line −596, parent FY2/12 −395): −596/0.32 = −1,862, 4.72× parent
- Within ±50% still only FY3/10, FY3/13, FY3/15 (3/9)
- Pearson r over the 9 pairs = 0.289 …