What this is
The expected fall in Pokémon TCG Pocket revenue next year (to February 2027) as a share of group revenue: about 8% gross of app-store fees, about 6% net.
How it’s built
- Pocket revenue booked by the company is estimated at ¥150bn for the year to February 2026 and about ¥66bn at its current run rate: a drop of ¥84.1bn (range ¥63.6–100.3bn).
- Net of app stores’ 30% cut the drop is 70% of that: ¥58.9bn (¥44.5–70.2bn).
- Divided by estimated group revenue of ¥1,020–1,048bn: 8.1% gross (6.1–9.8%), 5.6% net (4.2–6.9%).
What we assumed
- Pocket earns its current run rate for the whole next year.The research projects the run rate forward; the game could recover or fall faster.
- Pocket’s revenue was about ¥150bn in the year to February 2026.An estimate; the company does not report Pocket revenue.
- Whether the company books Pocket gross or net of store fees is unknown, so both are shown.The 70% net-to-gross factor comes from Sensor Tower, an app-data vendor.
- Group revenue is ¥1,020–1,048bn.Nintendo’s filed affiliate total less estimates for the baseball club and the other affiliate.
Sanity check
The fall lands on the Tokyo parent, where it is much bigger: about 16% of the parent’s revenue gross and 11% net.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
Show the working
- Gross central: 8.1%
- Gross band: 6.1 to 9.8%
- Net central: 5.6%
- Net band: 4.2 to 6.9%
- Net denominator only: 5.6 to 5.8%
- Gross: 84.1/1,043.0 = 8.1%
- 63.6/1,047.861 = 6.1%
- 100.3/1,019.861 = 9.8%
- Net: 58.9/1,043.0 = 5.6%
- 58.9/1,047.861 = 5.6%
- 58.9/1,019.861 = 5.8%
- Revised 2026-10-31 (red-team C5): net band now varies the headwind as does: 0.70 × 63.6 = 44.5, /1,047.861 = 4.2%
- 0.70 × 100.3 = 70.2, /1,019.861 = 6.9%
- The former [5.6, 5.8] is denominator variation only, kept as a label