What happened after Pokémon's 25th anniversary, as a guide to the 30th

What this is

What happened after Pokémon's 25th anniversary, as a guide to the 30th: in the following year, the second half of Nintendo's share of Pokémon profit fell to ¥9.5–11.3bn, 24–36% below the anniversary year's second half.

How it’s built

1. Nintendo's year to March 2022 split ¥11.8bn first half, ¥14.8bn second half.
2. For the next year the first half is estimated at ¥15.3–17.1bn, leaving ¥9.5–11.3bn of the ¥26.6bn total for the second half.
3. The same ratios applied to the 30th-anniversary year put a later half at ¥38.8–46.4bn, or ¥24.6–29.5bn on a lower base.

What we assumed

• The first half of the year to March 2023 is estimated.Nintendo's filing did not show it separately.
• The 30th anniversary follows the 25th's pattern.One precedent only.

Sanity check

It shows an earlier claim, that no half of the year to March 2028 would fall below ¥44.2bn, does not follow from its own assumption.

Where it comes from

Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:

• ReportedEquity method pickup folded cells bounds (cumulative), Q1/H1 year to March 2019, Q1 year to March 2020, Q1/H1 year to March 2023, Q1 year to March 2024 (cumulative)
• FiledNintendo's share of the profits of its equity-method affiliates, mainly The Pokémon Company, for the year to March 2023¥26.6bn