What this is
How much of consumer spending on Pokémon becomes The Pokémon Company’s revenue and profit, year to February 2026: about 27–39% as revenue, 7–10% as net profit.
How it’s built
- Consumer spending is the research’s own estimate of ¥2.72–3.74 trillion: cards, digital, console games, licensed merchandise, the company’s own shops and events.
- Group revenue, ¥1.02–1.05 trillion, is Nintendo’s filed total for its affiliates minus estimates for the other two (mainly the Seattle Mariners’ operator). Revenue over spending gives 27.2–38.5%.
- Net profit of ¥249–260bn (Nintendo’s filed affiliate profit minus the club’s estimated result) gives 6.7–9.5%.
- Removing a one-off investment gain and a related accounting release cuts profit to ¥196–207bn, or 5.2–7.6%.
What we assumed
- Consumer spending is ¥2.72–3.74 trillion.Itself an estimate; about two-thirds of it is License Global’s self-reported, estimated $15.7bn of licensed merchandise sales.
- The other affiliates’ revenue is ¥55–83bn and the club’s result between a ¥4.5bn loss and a ¥6.0bn profit.Built from Forbes’ $390m revenue estimate for the Mariners, adjusted for playoffs and items Forbes nets out; the adjustments are assumed.
- The company’s March–February year is treated as the same as Nintendo’s April–March year and calendar 2025.The periods overlap by ten or eleven months.
- Each range pairs the lowest revenue with the highest spending, and vice versa.This shows both uncertainties at full width rather than picking a point.
Sanity check
The spending total is the weak link: it is 1.16–1.59 times License Global’s single estimated figure, so if that figure is wrong every ratio here moves with it.
Where it comes from
Our calculation from other figures in the trainer’s notes:
- FiledCombined net profit of Nintendo’s three equity-method affiliates, chiefly The Pokémon Company, as reported for Nintendo’s year to March 2026¥255.1bn
- EstimateEstimated 2025 net result of the Seattle Mariners’ operating company, one of Nintendo’s affiliates
- EstimateHeadline ratios for The Pokémon Company group, year to February 202630%
- EstimateAffiliate aggregate net profit excluding gain and excluding recycle, year to March 2026 (affiliates' own FY)
Show the working
- TPC group revenue over consumer spend: 27.2 to 38.5%
- Modelled lines over consumer spend: 20.4 to 28.8%
- TPC alone net profit: ¥249–260bn
- TPC alone net profit over consumer spend: 6.7 to 9.5%
- TPC alone net profit ex gain and recycle over consumer spend: 5.2 to 7.6%
- Revenue 1,019.9/3,744.6 = 27.2%
- 1,047.9/2,724.3 = 38.5%
- Lines 554.5/2,724.3 = 20.4%
- 1,076.7/3,744.6 = 28.8%
- TPC-alone NI = three-affiliate 255.1 − club −4.5..+6.0 …